Exactly at 5 pm on 29 April, all TV stations worth their salt began to harangue viewers with electoral data ~ never mind the fact that due to Election Commission restrictions, no exit poll results could be broadcast till 6.30 pm. Politicians had a gala time jousting on prime-time TV, so did TV channels, who raked in moolah through highly priced, jarring advertisements. Exit polls monopolised TV screens for days on end, and in different forms ~ debates, speculation on what would happen if exit polls mirrored actual results, etc. ~ till the time, counting began, and actual results started to trickle in.

Psephology is a branch of political science that deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections, but in India, psephology has become synonymous with prediction of election results; that too often based on the caste or religious composition of a constituency ~ even before a single vote is cast. That said, exit polls are a recent phenomenon ~ an invention of the second half of the twentieth century. Not surprisingly, the popularity of exit polls has coincided with the growth of TV viewership, because exit polls serve little useful purpose other than boosting TRPs. Ersatz psephologists have no qualms in predicting election outcomes to the last seat.

Once the elections are over, these soothsayers go into hibernation ~ till the next election. Of course, political Chanakyas hone their strategy according to probable election results ~ identifying, and deciding the price of saleable legislators, and so no. Exit polls sometimes have unintended side effects, which many discovered to their grief on 4 June 2024. To recapitulate: Prior to declaration of election results of the 2024 General Elections, the PM, Home Minister and Finance Minister all claimed that the BJP and its allies were winning by a wide margin, and advised investors to buy shares before 4 June, as the share market would zoom upwards on 4 June; this claim was buttressed by exit polls ~ all exit polls claimed that NDA would romp home, with 360 to 400 seats.

Actual results were otherwise ~ BJP was unable to cross the half-way mark, and NDA was restricted to 293 seats. Resultantly, the share market touched a high on 3 June 2024, but nosedived on 4 June, erasing US$386 billion in market value. Prannoy Roy, formerly of NDTV, is credited with bringing exit polls to India. While studying at the Delhi School of Economics, Roy correctly predicted the outcome of the 1977 General Elections. Based on an exit poll, meticulously crafted by him, Roy produced an extremely accurate election forecast for the 1984 General Elections ~ laying the........

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