Iran has land borders with seven countries ~ Iraq (1,600 km approx.), Turkmenistan (1,150 km approx.), Afghanistan (920 km approx.), Pakistan (910 km approx.), Azerbaijan (690 km approx.), Turkey (530 km approx.) and Armenia (45 km approx.). Across waters, its maritime neighbours include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. This geographical understanding is necessary as the US-Israel led War on Iran has led cornered Iranians to strike selected targets across neighbouring countries as part of an escalation to a regional war, deliberately spread by Iran.

Countries chosen to be counterattacked by Iran are those that are considered US allies or have strategic US assets. Naturally, countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have been subjected to Iranian missile or drone attacks. The recent ‘hit’ of the major gas facility at Qatar, is one such carefully chosen target. Even co-sectarian Azerbaijan has reportedly been targeted by the Iranians (though disputedly so) as it is a rare Israeli ally in the region. Counterintuitively, while Israel had provided up to 70 per cent of all militaristic hardware to Shiite-Azerbaijan, the high temple of Shiite sensibilities i.e., Iran, had supported Azerbaijan’s predominantly Christian rival, Armenia, in the recent Azerbaijan-Armenia War.

Most Arab Sheikhdoms are automatic targets of Iran as they have been staunch US allies; they have hosted US military bases, and some have even pursued the Abrahamic Accords with Israel. Qatar and Oman were notable oddities, in that Iran refused to attack them initially. The reason was simple, Tehran initially viewed Qatar and Oman as neutral middlemen or mediators, who offered their services for communicating with the US-Israel duo, earlier. Historically also, Qatar and Oman had maintained positive relations with Iran (unlike other Arab Sheikhdoms), despite being predominantly Sunni-dominated.

Therefore, Iran wanted to avoid opening too many fronts and inadvertently uniting the theatre. But that stand changed after Iran’s South Pars gas field (shared with Qatar) was attacked. Iran was left with no choice but to indulge in energy symmetry by targeting Qatar’s LNG facilities. Also given that the US did have major military bases in Qatar (AL Udeid Air Base is the biggest military base in the region) and Oman has had strategic “Access Agreements” with the US that allow usage of Omani airbases and ports ~ the shift in stand was justified in Iranian eyes.

Logic soon morphed to that if they were US allies and supporting the ‘enemy’ (read, the US), then they are fair game to be attacked. However, one neighbouring country which remains untargeted, even though Iran has had an uneasy past with it, and is yet again becoming a close ally of the US, is Pakistan. In fact, both countries support militant groups across each other’s borders. Both have conducted retaliatory cross-border strikes against such groups. The two have punted on rival factions in the Afghanistan theatre. There is also sectarian dissonance as Iran is predominantly Shia, and Pakistan is predominantly, Sunni, with a track record of suppressing their respective minorities.

And most importantly, even though the US no longer has a military base in Pakistan anymore (after the Shamsi Airfield was closed) ~ Islamabad has been fawning, courting, and obsequiously falling-over backwards, to ingratiate itself with Washington DC and with US President Donald Trump, in particular. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has generously called Trump a ‘man of peace’ and openly supported his candidature for the Nobel Peace Prize for ostensibly stopping wars. Besides praising the Pakistani political leadership, Trump has been unusually vocal about the top Pakistani Military leader, Asim Munir, by calling him “my favourite Field Marshal”, “great, great, guy” and even said that meeting him was “an honour”! Now, given this recent and desperate wooing of the US by the Pakistanis ~ a question arises if the Iranians could target Pakistan next? After all, the Pakistanis are hardcore allies of Arab Sheikhdoms like Saudi Arabia and UAE, and have strong militaristic tie-ups and mutual- commitments to safeguard each other in any eventuality.

The 910 km long Iran-Pakistan border is also ‘softly’ manned on both sides, as both countries have far greater conventional military threats on other fronts. If the current War on Iran is focused on its Southern/Central military bases, ports and facilities ~ the Pakistani build-up is similarly focused along the Durand Line (Af-Pak border) and the Line-of-Control (along with India). This situationally also makes a potential Iranian strike against the Pakistanis relatively easy. So, what stops Iran from building even more ‘indirect political pressure’ by opening yet another big front ~ with Pakistan ~ to escalate the war, and push the US and its allies to call for restraint and negotiations. Perhaps the prohibitive ‘cost’ (military, financial, and diplomatic) of opening yet another front and the risk of getting stretched too thin, weighs on the mind of Iran.

Secondly, China along with Russia remains a major Iranian support, at least diplomatically. With substantial Chinese stakes in Pakistan e.g. assets like the Gwadar port as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Chinese may have cut a side-deal and secured their interests to the consequential benefit of Pakistan. Also, unlike many Arab Sheikhdoms, Pakistan has specifically denied the US the right to use it as a launching base to target Iran. Islamabad is also supposedly ‘neutral’ and has offered to mediate talks between the US and Iran.

However, if the situation evolves dramatically and that ‘forces’ Pakistan to take a side in the war owing to multiple pressure points, it too could attract Iranian attention. There are crippling economic reasons for Islamabad to not forego its ‘neutrality’ and get entangled on the third front (after India and Afghanistan) ~ but its increasing reliance on the US (therefore susceptible to Trump’s coercion) and prior commitments towards ensuring the security of some Arab Sheikhdoms could make it difficult for Pakistan to continue its ‘neutrality.’ For the Iranians, Pakistani territory always affords the only ‘nuclear targets’ in the region, should things take a decidedly sectarian turn, or if Iran wants to dramatize the war. So far both Iran and Pakistan are treading carefully and avoiding stepping on each other’s toes, but the situation is fast evolving, and nothing can be ruled out.

(The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd), and former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)

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