The ruling elite has once again tied Pakistan’s future to unrest and escalating geopolitical tensions, much like in the past. Instead of addressing historical grievances and engaging in dialogue to stabilize Balochistan, the focus appears to be on managing the situation through force. Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to become a focal point in emerging geopolitical tensions, attracting the influence of various regional and global powers. In such a scenario, democratic values may weaken further, political decision-making will continue to revolve around key institutional centers, and mainstream parties like PPP and PML-N may play a secondary role.

On the economic front, decision-making remains concentrated within a specific framework. I have previously written about the SIFC and how it is expected to oversee resources ranging from the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan to Punjab’s fertile lands, Sindh’s rivers, and Balochistan’s mineral wealth. Recently, reports emerged that thousands of tenant farmers in Jhang and Khanewal—who are integral to Punjab’s agriculture—are being displaced to make way for foreign investments. This reflects a shift in resource management where land and labor are being reallocated without clear alternatives for those affected.

Global developments are further reinforcing these trends. For example, after years of facing external pressure and increasing strategic competition, China is likely to accelerate efforts to strengthen regional alliances. At the same time, India has positioned itself as a key partner for the U.S. in........

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