Josh Simons, the MP for Makerfield, has decided to stand aside and resign his seat so that Andy Burnham can fight a by-election and return to Parliament as a candidate for the Labour leadership. Burnham has just confirmed that he is seeking permission from the ruling National Executive Committee to stand.

This is a high-stakes gamble for everyone involved. But then, in Labour politics right now, everything is

This is a high-stakes gamble for everyone involved. But then, in Labour politics right now, everything is

Makerfield sits next door to Leigh, the parliamentary seat Andy Burnham used to hold. But it is far from safe territory. Simons won it at the last general election with a majority of only around 6,000 over Reform. Nigel Farage’s party will contest this seat with all guns blazing. Most of the recent MRP superpolls put this down as a firm Reform win.

In the eight Makerfield wards contested at the local elections, these were the results:

Reform: 50.4 per cent

Labour: 22.7 per cent

Conservative: 9.9 per cent

Lib Dem: 3.8 per cent

Farage has just said: ‘We look forward to the contest and we will throw absolutely everything at it.’ He would be well advised to pick a hyper local candidate, perhaps a small businessman who used to vote Labour, and depict Burnham as a carpetbagger and Labour as a party that ‘takes your vote for granted’.

The roughly 1,600 Green votes from 2024 might migrate to Labour if those voters believe Burnham would take the party in a more leftward direction, but the danger must be just as great that the resurgent Greens take votes from Labour. Some of the 4,300 Conservative votes in Makerfield would likely move tactically for Reform, with the explicit purpose of keeping Burnham out of Parliament.

Burnham’s supporters argue that he enjoys a substantial personal vote across Greater Manchester that will come to his aid, and that being explicit about his desire to remove the........

© The Spectator