It’s been widely – and rightly – said that Danny Kruger’s defection to Reform is a highly significant moment, both for his new party and for the Conservatives. But perhaps the most interesting contention he has made in explaining his move is that the Conservative Party “is over”.

A more likely outcome is that while the Tories are unable to recover, they also refuse to collapse so completely that they become irrelevant

It certainly seems inconceivable, as Kruger said, that the Tories could win the next election (although the last few years should have taught us that nothing is inconceivable in politics: Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour party, anyone?). If movements in the polls since last year are any sort of guide to what will happen at the next election, there seems more likelihood that the Tories will lose seats than gain any – much like the Canadian Conservative Party in 1993, which was reduced to just two seats in parliament.

What happened in Canada between that 1993 rout and the 2006 election offers a possible preview of what may happen here, given some of the........

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