With the Tobacco and Vapes Bill travelling through the House of Lords, I think it’s high time we looked at the data justifying this almost unprecedented assault on liberty. Public health lobbyists and their politicians argue that without the incoming Generational Smoking Ban, smoking would continue to be prevalent amongst young people (16-24), which is when the vast majority of smokers initiate their lifetime consumption habit.

So, what happens to this argument – the fundamental argument behind the Generational Tobacco and Vapes BIll – when we look at the data provided by the ONS? Look at the graph below.

It turns out that this ‘onboarding’ rate is falling dramatically in recent years amongst young people. In 2020, as lockdown was first introduced, smoking amongst young people skyrocketed to 23.6 perc cent of the youth population (the author is included there) – in 2023, that has fallen to 8.2 per cent. It is on track to fall even further – achieving a ‘smoke free’ rate within the next few years by about the time the legislation comes into force in 2027. Modelling forward with a linear trend, we can see that by 2027, current 18-24s will be smoke free. By 2033, 25-34s reach smoke free, even if they are not affected by the proposed ban.

Some have pointed........

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