What weapon is stronger than F-16s, drones, targeted strikes, disciplined and war-hardened ground troops, and even nuclear weapons? Hostages. Despite its formidable armed forces and weapons capabilities, in the long and bitter struggle between Israel and its enemies, no tool of war has proven more effective in bending the will of the Jewish state than the abduction of its own citizens. Missiles can be intercepted, tanks can be destroyed, but a single captive Israeli can paralyse decision-making at the highest levels of government, as we are seeing today.

From the earliest wars, prisoner exchanges followed the conventions of armed conflict. After 1948 and again in 1967, soldiers were exchanged for soldiers in relatively balanced numbers. But over time, the symmetry vanished. In 1983, Israel released some 4,700 Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners for just six Israeli soldiers. The Jibril Agreement of 1985 deepened the trend: 1,150 prisoners, including many convicted of bloody attacks, were freed in exchange for three Israelis. Each successive deal confirmed to armed groups that hostages could yield not parity but jackpots.

By the time of Gilad Shalit’s release in 2011, the ratio had become grotesque: 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for one Israeli soldier. For Hamas, the lesson was unmistakeable: kidnapping was more........

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