The long war in Ukraine has morphed into a new and decisive phase, one that could lead to Ukraine’s upset victory over its much larger, more aggressive neighbor. The global consequences of Russia’s loss – and Vladimir Putin’s humiliation – would be enormous.

What is this new phase? Is there really evidence the tide has turned in Ukraine’s favor?

To sort out the answers and understand what’s new about the war’s current phase, we need to do a brief tour of the three phases that preceded it.

The first phase began well over a decade ago, in February 2014, when Barack Obama was president. Ukraine fatefully signaled it wanted much stronger ties with Europe and the United States, not Russia, at the very moment US deterrence was weak. Since the Kremlin considered Ukraine part of its “near abroad” and vital to Russian security, it objected strongly to Kyiv’s new tilt.

Putin, who considered Obama weak and NATO worthless, seized the opportunity to invade Crimea and the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which borders Russia. He has held that territory ever since, inserting permanent military installations and puppet political leaders.

After Putin’s success during the Obama years, he stayed put during Trump’s first term, only to move forward again during Joe Biden’s somnolent presidency. That’s when Putin launched the war’s second phase. His invasion in late February 2022 was designed to finish what he had left undone eight years earlier.

Putin’s new “special military operation” (he has never called it a “war”) was meant to last only a few days. That would be enough time, he figured, to seize Ukraine’s capital, install a friendly puppet regime, and solidify Russia’s control over Crimea without objection from Ukraine’s new rulers. He expected the local population to welcome the Russians.

Seizing Crimea was especially important. It occupied a dominant position on the Black Sea and had been part of Russia (and its Soviet successor) since the 18th century. In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev transferred the peninsula from a Russian oblast to a Ukrainian one. It was considered a minor move at the time. After all, Ukraine remained firmly within the USSR.

The transfer became important, retrospectively, after the Soviet Union collapsed. Crimea, having been part of the Ukrainian oblast, now became an integral part of the newly-independent Ukrainian nation.

Putin wanted it back, just like he wanted the rest of Ukraine. Indeed, as he repeatedly stated, he did........

© The Spectator