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U.S. Dollar and the Future of Cross-Border Trade

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22.06.2026

For more than seven decades, the U.S. dollar has served as the world’s principal settlement currency for cross-border trade. From oil shipments in the Middle East to electronics exports in Asia, international commerce has largely been conducted and settled in dollars. This dominance has provided stability, liquidity and efficiency to the global financial system. Yet, recent geopolitical tensions, sanctions, trade disputes and technological innovations are prompting many countries to reconsider their dependence on the greenback. The dollar’s supremacy is rooted in the economic strength of the United States, the depth of its financial markets and global confidence in American institutions. Businesses prefer using a currency that is widely accepted, easily convertible and backed by a robust financial system. As a result, even trade between two non-American countries is often invoiced and settled in dollars. However, the international landscape is changing. Major economies, including China, Russia and several members of the BRICS grouping, have accelerated efforts to conduct trade in local currencies. Bilateral agreements that bypass the dollar are becoming increasingly common. Central banks are also diversifying their foreign exchange reserves, reducing the share of dollar-denominated assets. The motivation is not purely economic. Many countries view excessive reliance on the dollar as a strategic vulnerability. Financial sanctions imposed through the dollar-based system have demonstrated how access to international payments can be influenced by geopolitical considerations. Consequently, governments are exploring alternatives that offer greater financial autonomy. Technological developments may further reshape the global payments architecture. Digital currencies, instant........

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