Military pressure can’t resolve strategic dispute
The latest cycle of confrontation between the US and Iran has once again underscored a familiar truth: military pressure can alter the tactical landscape, but it rarely resolves the strategic dispute. Airstrikes, sanctions and retaliatory threats may temporarily shift the balance, yet none addresses the deep mistrust that has accumulated over more than four decades. If there is to be a durable path away from recurring crises, diplomacy must return to the center of policy and it must be supported by trusted mediators capable of ensuring that agreements survive changes in political winds. The collapse of previous diplomatic understandings offers an important lesson. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), negotiated with the support of multiple international stakeholders, demonstrated that painstaking diplomacy could produce verifiable constraints on Iran’s nuclear program while offering Tehran sanctions relief. However, the agreement also exposed a critical weakness: it lacked sufficient political durability. When one administration withdrew from the accord, years of diplomatic effort quickly unraveled, reinforcing Iranian skepticism about Washington’s reliability and strengthening hardliners on both sides. This history explains why future negotiations cannot rely solely on bilateral commitments. They require credible third parties that both Washington and Tehran consider impartial enough to facilitate dialogue and robust enough to guarantee implementation. Countries such as Oman and Qatar have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to maintain communication channels even during periods of heightened hostility. European governments, despite diminished influence, continue to possess diplomatic expertise and institutional experience. Together, such actors can provide the continuity that direct US-Iran engagement often lacks. Yet mediation alone is insufficient. Successful diplomacy requires political backing from the major powers involved. Mediators cannot perform miracles if agreements remain vulnerable to domestic political shifts in Washington or Tehran. For diplomacy to succeed, both governments must recognize that compromise is not a concession to weakness but an investment in long-term security.........
