It’s Not Going to Get Any Easier for Democrats After Trump

Mr. Edsall contributes weekly essays from Washington on politics, demographics and inequality.

The Democratic Party’s short-term prospects look great. The party’s long-term prospects look dismal.

First, the party’s auspicious present: Democrats are favored to win the House and have a shot at taking control of the Senate in the midterm elections later this year.

In 2028, the steady collapse of support for President Trump has increased the likelihood of a Democratic presidential win.

But in 2030, the Democrats’ glory days turn ugly as the party’s fortunes face the threat of a downward spiral.

First, if the Democrats do win back the White House and the historical pattern holds, voters will turn against the party in the White House. In all the midterm elections held during the first term of a president in the modern era, the president’s party has lost House seats with only two exceptions, in 1934 and 2002.

Even more damaging than the historical pattern, the 2030 census will inflict two brutal body blows to the Democratic Party by putting the party in a significantly worse position in the contest to control the House and the presidential battle to win 270 votes in the Electoral College.

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Thomas B. Edsall has been a contributor to the Times Opinion section since 2011. His essays on strategic and demographic trends in American politics appear every Tuesday. He previously covered politics for The Washington Post.

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