Who Was Most Weakened by This War? Trump? Iran? 3 Opinion Writers Debate.

By Nicholas KristofBret StephensMegan K. Stack and Stephen Stromberg

President Trump announced a cease-fire with Iran ahead of negotiations set for this weekend on a settlement of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Stephen Stromberg, an editor in Opinion, gathered the Opinion columnists Nicholas Kristof and Bret Stephens and the Opinion contributing writer Megan K. Stack to discuss the prospects for peace and the effects of the war so far.

The conversation has been edited for clarity and length.

Stephen Stromberg: How probable is it that the shooting will start again before the two sides reach a settlement? Bret, why don’t you start?

Bret Stephens: As the great physicist Niels Bohr once said (or was it Yogi Berra?), “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” But I’d say this war isn’t over. Not by a long shot. I don’t think Donald Trump will allow Iran’s continued shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz to stand. I don’t think Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, will allow the cease-fire to get in the way of his country’s campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. And I don’t think the people in charge in Tehran are interested in a settlement that leaves them without enriched uranium or the ability to enrich uranium.

Nicholas Kristof: I agree that we’ll see more shooting. The two sides are too far apart to quickly reach a deal, so I suspect that they’ll take some whacks at each other and test what they can get away with. But I also think each side would like a deal, the right one, so there may be some willingness to muddle along ambiguously even with violations by the other side, without a return to full-scale war. I hope so.

Megan K. Stack: I don’t believe the violence is about to end. But I do think there is a small chance — emphasis on “small” — that Trump will use the next few days to extricate the United States from the whole mess and declare victory. Lebanon, which yesterday got pounded by the most deadly Israeli attack so far, is a major sticking point. Does Trump want a cease-fire badly enough to try to stop Israel’s assault on Lebanon? Does Iran see enough advantage in getting a deal out of the United States now that it might abandon Lebanon? Trump’s history suggests he will not turn on Israel, but he’s in a situation of unprecedented pressure over what many — including me — see as a disastrous debacle in Iran.

Stromberg: What should President Trump’s red lines be in the coming negotiations?

Stephens: At a minimum? First, the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway that must be open to shipping, free of threats of violence and free of tolls. Second, Iran can have neither its stockpile of enriched uranium nor the right to enrich uranium; if Iran wants low-enriched uranium to fuel nuclear reactors, we can supply it. Third, Iran must respect the sovereignty of all of its neighbors, including ones such as Lebanon, where it maintains proxies. There can be no peace in the region while Iran supplies terrorist groups with the means to undermine governments and attack neighboring countries. Fourth, Iran cannot again massacre its own people and expect immunity from attack: What’s called the “responsibility to protect” is something we owe Iran’s beleaguered people.

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Nicholas Kristof became a columnist for The Times Opinion desk in 2001 and has won two Pulitzer Prizes. His new memoir is “Chasing Hope: A Reporter's Life.” @NickKristof

Bret Stephens is an Opinion columnist for The Times, writing about foreign policy, domestic politics and cultural issues. Facebook

Megan K. Stack is a contributing Opinion writer. She has been a correspondent in China, Russia, Egypt, Israel, Afghanistan and the U.S.-Mexico border area. Her first book, a narrative account of the post-Sept. 11 wars, was a finalist for the National Book Award in nonfiction. @Megankstack

Stephen Stromberg is a Times opinion editor, focused on politics and economics. He has covered U.S. politics and policy since 2001. He joined The Times in 2025 from The Washington Post, where he was deputy editor of the opinion section.

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