We Are Witnessing the Rise of a New Aristocracy

By Jennifer M. Harris

Ms. Harris served as an economic official in the Biden White House.

Inequality is such a fact of American life that it’s easy to shrug off. But we are in uncharted terrain. The amassed wealth of today’s tech titans makes the Rockefellers and the Vanderbilts look quaint. Over the past two years, 19 households have added $1.8 trillion to their coffers, the economist Gabriel Zucman told me — roughly the size of the economy of Australia.

Into this fragile state enters artificial intelligence. It threatens to make a bad situation much worse.

Left on its current course, A.I. could deliver a bleak picture: lower- and middle-income jobs automated away, with top earners remaining unscathed. Income shifting from middle-wage workers doing the bulk of the labor toward those wealthy enough to bankroll the technology. Growth headwinds. Worsening affordability. So, too, a federal government less able to respond, thanks to a shrinking tax base.

For any society in which this much wealth gets concentrated in so few hands, and is then so easily parlayed into political clout, the question becomes one not just of economics but of basic civic standing. At some point soon, we are no longer sharing in self-government.

Start with A.I.’s impact on jobs. ​​Technologists are convinced that a labor apocalypse is nigh. In this story, A.I. is sometimes posited as a great equalizer, gutting white-collar jobs and salaries, giving more clout to trades like plumbing and dimming the luster of that Ivy League degree. The theory has gotten the nod from academics, industry associations and institutions such as the O.E.C.D.

In truth, whether A.I. will lead to widespread job loss remains guesswork. But the notion that it will narrow inequality by pushing downward on top earners seems far-fetched. What’s already clear: As A.I. transforms anything touching a keyboard, it will land first and hardest on the income ladder’s middle and lower rungs. The jobs most at risk, say government forecasters and economists, are administrative and office support staff, sales and lower-level computer programmers — all roles with salaries of $40,000 to $100,000.

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