Orban’s Fate Is a Warning Not to Get Too Close to Trump

Mr. Broder is an expert on European politics and the author of “Mussolini’s Grandchildren.” He reported from Dunaujvaros, Hungary.

The caps said it all.

Writing on Truth Social in late March, President Trump expressed solidarity with Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister. Looking ahead to Hungary’s parliamentary election this Sunday, Mr. Trump called Mr. Orban “a truly strong and powerful Leader” who “fights tirelessly for, and loves, his Great Country and People.” In case there was any doubt where his support lay, he concluded: “I AM WITH HIM ALL THE WAY!”

This was no isolated enthusiasm. Despite Hungary’s small size, with a population of under 10 million, many Trumpian figures see its longtime prime minister as a key political ally. In the fall, the administration’s National Security Strategy pledged to help “healthy nations” in Central and Eastern Europe, like Hungary, resist the “civilizational erasure” supposedly threatening the continent. “It’s in our national interest that Hungary be successful,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio summarized in February. For Mr. Trump, it’s simple. Mr. Orban is, he says, a “fantastic guy.”

His embrace may be a kiss of death for the Hungarian leader. Though MAGA supporters see Hungary as a conservative utopia, many Hungarians aren’t so happy for their country to play this role. Worse are the effects of Mr. Trump’s policies, aggravating an economic downturn and threatening the prime minister’s electoral support. In recent years, far-right parties around Europe have cultivated close ties with Mr. Trump; Hungary’s election may be a warning against getting too close. For if Mr. Orban falls, it will be in no small part thanks to his fan in the White House.

After a first term at the turn of the millennium, Mr. Orban has now ruled without interruption for 16 years. Wielding electoral majorities, his Fidesz party has remolded the country in its image. It rewrote the Constitution, forced the prestigious Central European University to leave and banned L.G.B.T.-related material in schools as part of a sweeping move against civil society. This, the all-dominant Mr. Orban claims, serves to defend Hungary’s national identity and even its independence from overbearing E.U. authorities.

All the while, the leadership in Budapest has courted international support, presenting itself as a model to be emulated. The government-backed Danube Institute sponsors National Conservative conferences, where fellow nationalists come together in major European cities to compare notes. Commuters browsing London rail-station kiosks may encounter a magazine titled Hungarian Conservative. (More rarely are they spotted reading a copy.) It’s all part of a concerted project of raising Hungary’s international prestige as a vanguard of illiberal rule.

Mr. Trump is one of many who have been convinced. The Fidesz government, in his words, has served to “Protect Hungary, Grow the Economy, Create Jobs, Promote Trade, Stop Illegal Immigration, and Ensure LAW AND ORDER!” The esteem goes both ways. Though the American president is widely unpopular across Europe, a recent poll suggested that almost one-third of Hungarians have confidence in him, especially supporters of the Orban government. Yet no matter the mutual respect, Mr. Trump’s policies are hurting Hungary.

Subscribe to The Times to read as many articles as you like.

© The New York Times