On the Strait of Hormuz, Who Will Blink First, the US or Iran?

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Iran’s economy is already crippled, but still resilient. The US economy is less threatened, but its political system is less tolerant of short-term economic pain.

With its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz now in place, Washington faces the twin challenge of maintaining it in the face of domestic and global pressures, and of convincing Tehran that—despite the stop-and-go nature of US action so far in the war—it has the intestinal fortitude to do so.

To be sure, the United States has the military resources to impose devastating costs on Iran’s economy, which was already teetering before the war began in late February and which continues to decline.

The question is whether Washington can withstand the blowback at home and abroad. At home, Americans have increasingly soured on the economy, the war with Iran is ever-more unpopular, President Donald Trump’s poll numbers are sinking, and the upcoming midterm elections could well cost Republicans their congressional majority. A continuing blockade and the higher gas prices it could bring would likely increase political pressure on Trump to end the conflict before Washington has achieved its goals.

Abroad, no Western ally has yet answered the president’s request to........

© The National Interest