Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu with US and Israel flags and a smartphone showing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the Iranian flag. The Iran war is accelerating a reordering of the global nuclear regime, with far-reaching implications for nonproliferation, civil nuclear trade, and nuclear security. (Shutterstock/Bendix M)

Reordering the Nuclear Regime in the Wake of the Iran War 

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The Iran war is accelerating a reordering of the global nuclear regime, with far-reaching implications for nonproliferation, civil nuclear trade, and nuclear security.

The Iran war has delivered another hammer blow to an already crumbling global nuclear regime. The rapid and destabilizing technological and geopolitical changes of recent years have severely undermined the international order and sent shock waves that are reshaping nuclear energy, security, and weapons policy.

Iran’s Nuclear Challenge

The Iran war underscores the evolution of the nuclear regime. It has set a precedent for the forcible dismantlement of a sovereign nation’s active nuclear program. Military strikes on nuclear infrastructure are unusual in the history of containing nuclear proliferation, although Israel has preemptively struck non-operating research reactors in Iraq and Syria.

The United States and Israel launched air strikes that incapacitated much of Iran’s hard and soft nuclear infrastructure with a focus on destroying its uranium enrichment and scientific capability. President Donald Trump has claimed the uranium enrichment capability has been “obliterated,” and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director, John Ratcliffe, has stated that the nuclear sites have been “severely damaged.”

This has led to the loss of control of Iran’s fissile material. Iran has produced 400 kilograms of weapon-grade uranium that likely is buried under tons of rubble at the Isfahan nuclear complex. While mystery still shrouds its status, it is probable that Iran does not control this material. 

There is a historical precedent for uncertain control of weapons-grade material in the wake of the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). But that original “loose nukes” problem was remedied through cooperation among the United States, Russia, and the former Soviet states. 

Such cooperation seems unlikely in Iran, but joint activity with a common goal is perhaps not out of the question. Trump has claimed that Iran believes that only the United States or China could excavate and remove the buried uranium. And at various times, he has stated that Iran is willing to allow the removal of the material from the country. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, apparently with the agreement of the United States, has declared that the war will not be over until the enriched uranium has been “taken out of Iran” and “enrichment sites…dismantled.” 

It is dangerous, expensive, and complex for the United States or........

© The National Interest