A Grand Syria-Gaza Bargain
The Trump administration hopes it can move hundreds of thousands of Palestinians out of Gaza and revive some version of the Peace for Prosperity plan. However, by allowing Israel to pursue resettlement in Syria, Washington risks destabilizing the government in Damascus and a return to civil war. This is precisely the kind of messy, complicated, protracted initiative that the White House would like to avoid, and it is indicative of the policy differences emerging between the United States and Israel.
The Problem in Gaza
The White House has made no secret of the fact that it would like to see the removal of Palestinians from Gaza, which would allow for the reconstruction of the strip before some refugees can be vetted for return. It is in line with the plans of the first Trump administration for a more integral approach to Israel’s relationship with the territories—something that adheres to a normalized legal and economic framework while falling short of full Palestinian statehood, bringing security and stability to the region along with a possible Nobel Peace Prize for the president. This vision for peace has been shaped by politicians on the Center-Right in Israel, who have sought to address the realities on the ground while accommodating the doubts and fears of a majority of the Israeli public.
There is a convergence of U.S. and Israeli interests in finding a resolution to an otherwise intractable situation in which the Israeli and Palestinian publics are worlds apart on the future of peace and security. Accordingly, there are reports the Israeli government is seeking to convince various nations in Africa to accept Palestinians, including South Sudan and Somalia.
U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff made a more serious suggestion about Indonesia back in January. Still, in the absence of a coherent negotiating process and media strategy, it was roundly rejected by Jakarta. There were brief rumors in mid-March of White House outreach to Syria through a third party, though the Syrian government denied the reports.
Israel’s Strategic Calculus
Despite this convergence of interests, Jerusalem is starting in a very different place from Washington. Since the ceasefire ended the night of March 17, Israel has turned 30 percent of Gaza into a buffer zone, which the Israeli defense ministry plans to keep under any peace settlement. Along with the Netzarim corridor isolating Gaza City in the........
© The National Interest
