Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick declared on Tuesday that everything is hunky-dory with President Donald Trump’s Friday tariff deadline. “August 1 is the date that we’re setting all these rates,” he said on Tuesday, “and they are off to the races after that.” But the date that really matters is another one—August 12, when the economic truce between Washington and Beijing is set to expire. The likelihood is that both sides will reach a temporary deal that each then reinterprets once they have announced it.

Trump has signed deals with the European Union (EU) and Japan that set tariffs at 15 percent. Both the EU and Japan have offered versions of the deal that conflict directly with that of Trump’s. Though some European leaders are complaining that it is a “dark day” for the continent, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen was right to reach an accommodation with Trump. The provisions of the deal—particularly the agreement to up defense purchases from America—are murky enough that Europe will likely never have to fulfill them. An all-out trade war with America would also have undermined Trump’s willingness to bolster NATO and Ukraine at the very moment that he has been making approving noises about each of them.

The Trump administration has not reached a deal with India, which is expecting Trump to levy temporary tariffs of 20 percent or more. His plan is to create a “world tariff” rate for

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