For years, policymakers in Washington heard from a range of advocates and activists that Iran’s political opposition was primed to rise against the country’s clerical regime, if only it were provided an opening to do so. But when Israel launched a military offensive to cripple the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program earlier this summer, nothing of the sort happened.

Even when Israel targeted elements of Iran’s repressive police state (including the headquarters of its feared domestic militia, the Basij) as part of a limited effort to erode the regime’s hold on power, the Iranian “street” remained mostly silent. All of which has helped convince officials in Washington that, in terms of political relevance, Iran’s current government is the only game in town—and will be for the foreseeable future.

The reality, however, is a good deal more complex, as a

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