The importance of the Ukraine minerals deal has improved the tone of U.S.-Ukraine relations, but will not be a financial windfall for either country.

The United States and Ukraine finally signed off on their mineral resources agreement on May 1, after more than two months of negotiations. The main observations that can be made about it are regarding what is not in the document. There is no U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine, which Kyiv had wanted. The deal also does not apply to U.S. assistance to Ukraine prior to its signing, nor to the existing production of minerals and fossil fuels. The latter is much more favorable to Ukraine than what President Trump was talking about two months ago – where Ukraine would essentially be paying the United States back for previous aid.

So what is in the deal? The substance is basically preferential treatment for the United States in future projects concerning natural resources, which are very broadly defined. That includes not just rare earths, which Ukraine seems to have little potential to produce, but also base and precious metals and fossil fuels. Future U.S. aid would count as a contribution to a joint investment fund, with Ukraine still holding the title to the subsoil mineral rights.

The latter might see some opportunities. Ukraine produces only a small amount of crude oil – about

© The National Interest