Political fortunes turn fast. One day in August, US president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin exchanged handshakes on a red carpet in Alaska. The following month, President Trump called Russia a “paper tiger.” Even more revealing than the insult was what followed: once President Trump flagged fuel lines and gas shortages, Moscow’s tightly controlled media—usually eager to hide failures—started running the story, writing, “it is no longer possible to deny the signs of petrol shortages in the regions.”

Being forced to cover the shortages is another crack in Putin’s façade as the “special military operation” drags well into its fourth year.

In February, Mr. Trump told Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky he had “no cards.” But over the past year, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries showcased Kyiv’s growing drone power, even as Moscow relied on waves of meatgrinder assaults for tiny territorial gains. By 2025, Russia had paid an estimated 200,000–300,000 killed and wounded for roughly 0.6 percent of Ukraine’s territory.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister, argues the war has entered a prolonged phase in which deterrence and hopes for a quick ceasefire are unrealistic. He advocates for a policy of “strategic neutralization,” which involves paralyzing Russia’s key capabilities across various domains to render aggression operationally futile.

One Ukrainian officer said Kyiv carefully tracks damage and prioritizes hits on airports, weapons depots, and energy infrastructure because, while Russia can absorb huge human losses, “it is painful for them to lose money”—and oil revenues fund the state, oligarchs, and the funds used to keep soldiers fighting. Russia is simply too vast to defend all its territory against the masses of Ukrainian drones since Kyiv began its air offensive in 2023.

Kyiv is evolving beyond swarms of expendable drones. The War Zone noted that this month, Ukraine unveiled a “bulged” R-360 Neptune, a homegrown cruise missile with extended range, a sign that Ukraine is building a deeper and more layered strike arsenal now used against Russian factories and logistics hubs. Another domestically-produced system, the

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