Pakistan and Afghanistan are currently locked in a war that neither side can win. Analyses of the situation suggest that since Pakistan’s patience with the Afghan Taliban government has been exhausted, Pakistan’s end game in this war may have two possible outcomes: weaken the Taliban regime to the extent that it complies with Pakistan’s demands regarding the TTP or, if this outcome is not achieved, deliver crushing blows that could even lead to regime change.

Continued military conflict can further complicate an already aggravated Pakistan-Afghanistan equation. The two neighbouring countries are already in an unprecedented diplomatic freeze, where no bilateral channels of communication remain active. The border between the two countries has been closed since October 2025, and no movement of people or trade and transit has taken place for the past six months.

Although tensions have often spiked between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the past three decades and have at times resulted in limited border skirmishes, the two states have never before entered into a direct war. Pakistan has a well-founded concern regarding the TTP’s cross-border terrorism. Afghanistan is not in a position to match Pakistan’s military muscle, but the real danger in a prolonged conflict would be the scars this war could leave on an already trust-deficient bilateral relationship. The Afghan Taliban may already be using this situation to muster anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan.

Under these circumstances, a military strategy aimed at weakening the Afghan Taliban regime or forcing its capitulation has a limited chance of yielding the desired results.

The real issue Pakistan needs to address in its Afghan policy is the constantly narrowing base of its relations within Afghan society over the past several decades. In the 1980s, while supporting the Afghan jihad against Soviet occupation and hosting millions of Afghan refugees, Pakistan enjoyed immense goodwill in Afghanistan. Three decades later, during the presence of US and NATO forces, the perception in Afghanistan and internationally was that Pakistan’s support was confined to the Taliban against the will of the majority of Afghans. In the last four years, even the gap between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban has become increasingly difficult to bridge.

The post-2021 situation in Afghanistan has exacerbated the challenges to lasting peace and stability in the country and the wider region. While the Doha Peace Agreement enabled the scheduled withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, it did not deliver the intra-Afghan political settlement supported by most countries, including Pakistan. After taking power, the Afghan Taliban have also boxed themselves into an unenviable situation. They have used the vacuum in Afghanistan to impose a hardline and exclusive Taliban regime, deepening isolation and lack of legitimacy. The Taliban have also reneged on their promises during the Doha process and after the takeover regarding the development of a future constitutional framework for a broader representative government and the observance of human rights such as girls’ education, women’s empowerment and media freedoms.

Most problematically, the Afghan Taliban have neither shown a willingness to become part of regional and international counter-terrorism frameworks nor do they possess the capacity to do so. Intelligence assessments, most notably reports by UN Security Council mechanisms, indicate that Afghanistan continues to serve as a safe haven for global and regional terrorist groups such as Daesh, Al-Qaeda, the TTP, the BLA, ETIM, IMU and Jaish-ul-Adl, among others. Pakistan has indeed become a direct target of brutal terrorist attacks by the TTP and the BLA.

It is true that most of Afghanistan’s neighbours and regional countries, including China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and the Central Asian states, are concerned about this situation. However, their priority has consistently been to resolve the issues through dialogue and diplomacy. In the meantime, the US and Israeli attacks on Iran last week have pushed the region into an expanded and prolonged conflict.

In this situation, a pragmatic approach on the Afghan front would be to engage strategic allies to carve a way out of the current untenable military conflict and move towards a regional diplomatic process addressing terrorism and other issues relating to Afghanistan and its interaction with the outside world. National sovereignty, non-interference and the aspirations of the people should be the fundamental pillars of such an approach.

In pursuit of this objective, Pakistan can look towards facilitation by key regional partners, particularly China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

China, a neighbour of Afghanistan, has significantly expanded its influence in Kabul in recent years. Being threatened by the presence of ETIM in Afghanistan, China has a genuine interest in establishing regional mechanisms focused on counter-terrorism as well as long-term peace, development and connectivity. On March 4, the Chinese ambassador in Kabul, Zhao Xing, met Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and emphasised the need to address the issues through dialogue and diplomatic channels. These contacts could be used to create momentum for reactivating the Pakistan-Afghanistan-China trilateral process to help restore diplomatic and security channels between Islamabad and Kabul.

Turkey has also been at the forefront of efforts to ease Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions in recent months. During the current phase as well, Ankara has remained active in these efforts, with the Turkish foreign minister maintaining contacts with both his Pakistani and Afghan counterparts. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after a telephone conversation with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif earlier this week, indicated that Turkiye would like to contribute to a ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Saudi Arabia is another regional country with significant religious and political influence over the Afghan Taliban leadership. It is in the common interest of both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia — two strategic defence partners — that at a time when the flames of war in Iran are engulfing the Middle East, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are handled amicably. Saudi Arabia has in recent months quietly engaged in mediating issues between the two countries.

On March 4, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also called on Kabul and Islamabad to refrain from military confrontation and resolve their differences through dialogue based on mutual respect.

Efforts at this stage should therefore focus on constructively using the good offices of friendly regional countries to transition the ongoing Pakistan-Afghanistan hostilities into a regionally supported peace initiative. Such an initiative should aim to bring the Afghan interim government into regional counter-terrorism efforts. All six neighbours of Afghanistan — Pakistan, China, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan — as well as Saudi Arabia and Turkey should be part of this regional grouping, which could be expanded in the future if required.

Beyond counter-terrorism, the proposed forum should also help Afghanistan in economic development, regional connectivity and inclusive governance.

It goes without saying that there are no winners in a Pakistan-Afghanistan war, except the enemies and detractors of the two neighbours. A regional peace and economic initiative could be a win-win proposition.

Mansoor Ahmad KhanThe writer is former ambassador of Pakistan to Afghanistan and currently head of the BNU Centre for Policy Research, Lahore.

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