As the world approaches 2026, uncertainty has become a defining feature of global affairs. Unlike previous eras, today’s unpredictability stems not only from cyclical economic swings or traditional political rivalries but from a combination of technological disruption, shifting geopolitical alliances, and unexpected crises that redefine the global landscape. These developments-often called “black swan” events-are highly improbable but have disproportionate consequences, reshaping economies, political structures, and international norms in ways that are hard to anticipate.

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Two interrelated uncertainties will shape the next phase of global affairs. First, the geopolitical context remains volatile and may even deteriorate further. The war in Ukraine continues to dominate international attention, but instability extends far beyond Eastern Europe. In the Middle East, the repercussions of the October 7, 2023, Israel-Hamas conflict continue to reverberate, fueling regional tensions and testing the capacity of world powers to maintain stability. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed states with unpredictable leadership - such as North Korea - pose ongoing risks, and fragile states across Africa and Asia remain susceptible to domestic and cross-border conflicts.

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The second critical uncertainty lies in the trajectory of global economic growth. Following the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world economy entered a fragile recovery, driven in large part by technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI). AI is rapidly transforming productivity, labor markets, and industrial structures. However, reliance on a technology-driven growth model introduces vulnerabilities: potential market bubbles, uneven wealth creation, and systemic shocks that could cascade through global financial systems. Whether this AI-led expansion can sustain itself amid geopolitical turbulence is one of the defining........

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