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JD Vance: A Prisoner of the Caucasus

The vice president’s trip adds fuel to regional fires.

If there is one characteristic that defines the erratic and incoherent “Donroe Doctrine” of President Trump, then it must be the principle that “might makes right” in international politics. The Trump administration has little need for international law. It is willfully and blatantly disregarded and, indeed, discarded. Instead, from Greenland to Gaza, from Venezuela to Iran, the “law of the jungle” reigns supreme.

The essence of the “Donroe Doctrine” can be observed in the administration’s approach to both war and peace. An example of the latter is what occurred earlier this week when Vice President JD Vance flew to the Caucasus in a bid to bolster American influence and pressure on Iran’s northern frontier, at a time when tension between Washington and Tehran has never been higher. Amid profound domestic crises in the US, it would seem prudent to avoid dragging America into such far-flung adventurism, in a part of the world that is virtually unknown to most Americans. Yet there was Vance, stoking tensions with a large regional power—Iran—and a massive atomic superpower—Russia—all while quietly sanctioning democratic decline and ethnic cleansing in the post-Soviet Caucasus.

Vance’s Caucasian itinerary consisted of two of the three South Caucasus states—Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia, once the favorite of American neocons, was conspicuously avoided. In 2008, its president, Mikheil Saakashvili, had bungled his way into a confrontation with Russia at the behest of the Bush administration. Facing a bear-like reaction from Moscow, Tbilisi was left in the lurch by Washington. While Georgia has since learned from this painful episode, Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev have decided to try their luck at the “Saakashvili” approach, with ample encouragement from President Trump. It is at their own peril that they ignore the clear warnings from Russia and Iran against any American presence on their borders.

Vance arrived first in Armenia, flying into Yerevan from Milan on a rainy Monday afternoon. A major part of his visit was to reinforce American commitment to the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). Hailed by the Trump administration as a “historic” project to bring peace to the region, the known details of this initiative indicate that it is more likely to bring war than peace. TRIPP involves Armenia effectively relinquishing control of its crucial........

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