Tokayev’s Warning to Putin Was About More Than Ukraine
Why would one of Russia's closest allies publicly call on President Vladimir Putin to freeze the war in Ukraine, knowing the message would not be welcome? That is what President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan did last week in Omsk and the question of why made headlines around the world.
Before digging a little deeper, there is some important context to mention whenever we talk about relations between Astana and Moscow. First of all, Kazakhstan shares a 7,644-kilometer border with Russia, the longest continuous international border in the world. One point on which both supporters and critics of the Kazakh government tend to agree is that geography simply cannot be ignored when discussing Kazakhstan’s foreign policy toward Russia.
Furthermore, mid-level Russian politicians and public figures openly promote propagandistic narratives about Kazakhstan, criticizing its domestic language policy and making barely disguised territorial claims about the country’s northern regions bordering Russia. Obviously, none of this can be ignored by anyone who remembers how the war in Ukraine began. Another important part of the context is that Kazakhstan remains closely tied to Russia economically.
Considering all these factors, Kazakhstan has little choice but to do what Tokayev, a career diplomat, does best: maintain a balance. A crucial part of his job is preserving Kazakhstan's economic and diplomatic ties with Europe, the United States, China and other major global players shaping international politics. To borrow a phrase from “The Odyssey,” Tokayev's decision seems to have been driven by a case of being caught between Scylla and Charybdis — forced to navigate between two equally difficult options, neither of which offered an easy way out.
Even though global politics has become increasingly turbulent in recent years, states ultimately tend to put their national interests first. In this case, the........
