Will Bulgaria become the next Hungary, holding up the bloc’s effort to rearm and to help Ukraine prevail in the war against Russia? That is not an unthinkable proposition, given the nature of Bulgaria’s new parliamentary majority and public opinion in the country.

Yet, the concern should be tempered by the fact that Viktor Orbán has been a unique figure, not only politically savvy but also driven by a distinct ideological project. The incoming Prime Minister of Bulgaria Rumen Radev — who previously served as president for two terms — may not lack political skills. But only time will tell whether he is also a figure with ambitions resembling Orbán’s, or whether he is a more parochial leader, weighing in on strategic questions only in the pursuit of narrow domestic goals. 

Other factors, including Bulgaria’s political instability and its dependence on the EU, migigate the prospect of its leading a dissenting, “pro-peace” coalition seeking to throw a wrench into the EU’s geopolitical works. 

Radev’s own party, founded just this year, merges several left-wing political groups under one umbrella, united by economic populism, a vague sense of nostalgia for the communist past, and a distrust of the West. Much like Robert Fico’s Smer in Slovakia, Progressive Bulgaria exemplifies the horseshoe theory of politics. Ahead of the election this April, for example, it has received support from VMRO — the Bulgarian National Movement — a nationalist party which has a long history of extremist rhetoric, some of it targeting the country’s sizeable Roma population. 

As President, Radev opposed Bulgaria’s military assistance to Ukraine as well as the country’s impressive and sudden decoupling from Russian energy sources. Earlier, he weighed in on the government’s........

© The Moscow Times