A fragile ceasefire has ended 12 days of war between Israel and Iran, a war that also saw the United States strike key Iranian nuclear facilities. This moment demands a deeper look at the potential long-term consequences for the region’s geopolitical future.

The Israel–Iran war marks the close of one of the most consequential chapters in modern Middle Eastern history: Iran’s aspiration for regional hegemony, driven by its Shi’ite clerical regime that came to power in 1979.

For decades, Iran pursued regional domination, entrenching itself in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Yemen through violent proxies that left devastation and instability in their wake. Cloaking its ambitions in the rhetoric of “resistance” and claiming to defend the Palestinian cause, Iran exploited a........

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