A screen displays a portrait of Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during the funerals of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, army commanders and others killed in the early days of the United States and Israeli strikes on Iran, at Enqelab Square, Tehran, March 11. AFP-Yonhap

The ongoing war in Iran has critical implications for countries like Korea that face adversaries across their borders. It has demonstrated how the sudden intervention of a third country — in this case, Russia — acting in sync with an adversary can affect the course of a conflict and eventually force a country to change its playbook.

According to U.S. officials, Russia shared high-quality satellite imagery and targeting data with Iran and helped the country identify blind spots in U.S. air defenses, enabling it to launch targeted strikes with drones and missiles.

Iran is not comparable to the United States in overall military strength. From the onset of the war on Feb. 28, the U.S. was able to locate and destroy major Iranian infrastructure facilities and eliminate key political and military figures, including the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, using its strategic assets.

But even the most expensive weapons have vulnerabilities. Iran fought back by exploiting weaknesses in U.S. defense systems and making the most of its asymmetric capabilities in drones.

Iran’s cheaper drones — most notably the Shahed series — targeted valuable U.S. assets deployed in the Middle East, such as early-warning radars, over-the-horizon radars and command and control centers, severely damaging some of them. On March 1, an Iranian drone struck a U.S. military facility in Kuwait, killing six U.S. service members and injuring several others. A CIA station at the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was also hit. According to media reports, Iran also launched strikes on U.S. naval vessels and aircraft in the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s cost-effective attacks on U.S. facilities would likely not have been possible without Russia’s sophisticated intelligence support.

For South Korea, Russia’s role in the war in Iran is a chilling reminder of the Russia-North Korea military partnership and its potential risks.

What is particularly worrying about the growing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang is that their militaries have proven to be complementary, as demonstrated in the war in Ukraine, where North Korea helped fill Russia’s shortage of artillery shells. Pyongyang also sent troops to fight alongside Russian soldiers — a gesture that likely meant a great deal to Russia, which has become increasingly isolated since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Middle East conflict sends a clear signal about how dangerous it can be when Russia’s advanced reconnaissance capabilities are paired with an ally possessing asymmetric military capabilities.

This same risk looms over South Korea in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Russia possesses technologies that North Korea has long sought — particularly in reconnaissance and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development.

Reconnaissance is one of the areas where South Korea currently maintains a clear advantage over the North. Pyongyang has long sought to obtain what it calls an “eye in the sky” — the ability to detect and locate major enemy facilities so that it can launch precise strikes against them. North Korea has launched several military spy satellites to achieve this goal.

However, the results have been disappointing. Although Pyongyang claimed success, reality appears far less impressive. Its spy satellite, Malligyong-1, is believed to have critical camera limitations, with resolution too low to function effectively as a military reconnaissance satellite.

Beyond reconnaissance, North Korea is also reportedly seeking Russian assistance with ICBM technology. Since 2017, Pyongyang has tested several Hwasong-series ICBMs capable of carrying nuclear warheads and reaching the U.S. mainland. North Korea is believed to have developed nuclear warhead miniaturization technology, but has yet to demonstrate mastery of atmospheric reentry technology — a critical capability needed for a nuclear warhead to survive the extreme heat and vibration encountered when reentering Earth’s atmosphere.

It remains unclear whether Russia has already helped North Korea obtain sensitive technologies in reconnaissance, ICBM development or both. It is equally uncertain whether Moscow plans to assist Pyongyang in acquiring these capabilities in the future.

Russia’s role in the war in Iran has nevertheless provided food for thought for security watchers in South Korea. What if Russia’s eyes one day guide North Korea’s drones, as they did for Iran? Is Seoul prepared for such a scenario?

Like Iran, North Korea also possesses asymmetric military capabilities, particularly in drones. The growing partnership between North Korea and Russia is therefore casting a long shadow over South Korea even as conflict in the Middle East persists.

Addressing concerns about the redeployment of U.S. weapons from South Korea to the Middle East, President Lee Jae Myung said the move would not weaken South Korea’s deterrence against the North. He noted that South Korea’s defense spending is significantly higher than North Korea’s, emphasizing that Seoul’s annual defense budget is about 1.4 times larger than the North’s GDP. He also stressed that South Korea ranks fifth in global military strength.

Lee understands the weight of presidential remarks and how they can be interpreted. He likely made such comments to reassure the public and prevent unnecessary anxiety over the redeployment of U.S. weapons systems.

But figures are only figures. Statistics such as defense spending or global military rankings do not automatically translate into real military power. As the war in Iran has demonstrated, countries considered relatively weaker can still pose serious threats — especially when their asymmetric capabilities are combined with advanced technologies provided by a powerful ally.

Countering the “Russia factor” is now emerging as a new strategic challenge for Seoul in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.

An employee holds a poster bearing images of, from left, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with a slogan that reads in French, "Don't forget to sort the waste," after removing it from a city bus in southern France, Jan. 9, 2025. AFP-Yonhap

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