What’s hard to keep in mind, with all the hype that’s flying around, is that there’s no particular reason for either side in the Ukraine war to want a ceasefire right now, let alone a full peace settlement. The only one who’s in a hurry is U.S. President Donald Trump, and that’s just because he’s terminally impatient.

The war, which has just passed its third anniversary, is as deeply stuck in the mud as the First World War that it so closely resembles. The Russians use their huge numerical superiority to make small advances at great cost of Russian lives, but at their rate of advance during the past year they would only be nearing the outskirts of Kyiv sometime in early 2029.

That does not mean that the current war of attrition will last until 2029, but rather that nobody can confidently predict the winner now. A drastic change of circumstances on either side could come at any point: a mutiny in the army, a change of government at home or even some third party joining the fight.

In the meantime, each side hangs on, playing its allotted role in the attritional war — much higher Russian casualties but a very slow Ukrainian retreat — and waiting for the unforeseeable but eventually almost........

© The Korea Times