The United States is six months away from the most consequential midterm elections in its history. Meanwhile, we are living in times when U.S. President Donald Trump, together with Israel, is in direct conflict with Iran. These are the ideal conditions for a head of state to seize power in a coup.

Trump’s chief concern is preserving his own comfort and power, much of which will be lost if the Democrats retake control of the House of Representatives, as they look poised to do. Clearly, Trump has no qualms about election meddling: He already attempted to overturn the 2020 presidential election and has mused about canceling the midterms. More recently, he has tried to push through legislation that would severely restrict voting, making it a privilege.

When it comes to Iran, Trump and U.S. Secretary of “War” (Defense) Pete Hegseth have been stuck in the logic of escalation, according to which the feeling of defeat today can be reversed by doing the first thing that comes to mind tomorrow. Each day that the conflict and uncertainty about it continue — regardless of the recent "two-week" ceasefire that was shaky from the start — people around the president will profit (through insider trading, political bets or arms dealing). And the longer the situation lasts, the greater the chance that it will be exploited for a coup attempt.

Against this backdrop, Trump’s proposal to boost the defense budget by more than 40% should be understood as a payoff for the officers whose backing he hopes to secure. Hegseth, for his part, is frantically purging people of principle from the........

© The Japan Times