People are starting to talk about the end of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This is more than wishful thinking from opponents and rivals. Prof Peter Shirlow of the University of Liverpool’s Institute of Irish Studies told The Irish News two weeks ago the survival of the party was “questionable”.

A split is widening over the Drumcree dispute that could crack open deeper fractures. The DUP is arguing with itself in public over whether to stay in Stormont: the leadership has warned that leaving would be disastrous for the party, the union and the public.

In July, the DUP dropped one point behind the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) in a LucidTalk opinion poll. This was linked to the conviction of former leader Jeffrey Donaldson the month before. Almost 40 per cent of unionist voters questioned said they would stop giving the DUP a preference as a result.

Another LucidTalk poll will be published next week. If it shows a further fall or if it has the UUP still in the lead then there will be panic inside the DUP. The party is already in election mode, preparing for assembly and council votes next May. Fighting these contests while behind in the polls will be a novel horror for almost everyone in the party.

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