Ask yourself this: what was Alliance’s position on Drumcree? Could you articulate it if you were asked? Before writing this article I tried and couldn’t.

Drumcree will define next year’s Assembly elections. This week, the first set of post-standoff polling was released and it shows Sinn Féin on 30%, 12 points ahead of the DUP. We have 41 MLAs in favour of a united Ireland and 42 in favour of the union.

Then there’s the middle ground, the deciding factor in any border. Here, things get interesting. Alliance are on 9 per cent, a drop of two per cent. In July, Lucid Talk had the party on 10%, a percentage drop from April. The Greens are also down.

Can we really draw much from one poll? Maybe, but please indulge me.

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Yes, the figures are within the margin of error but I think we’re starting to see a trend here. Parties rise and fall and Alliance have had an extraordinary rise. The party was going to peak at some point and I think that moment has arrived. Alliance are losing support. At best, they’re flatlining. They know it and I think the public knows it as well.

Post-Brexit, Alliance grew because it captured the mood of angry remain voters in Northern Ireland. Anger against unionism and anger against the British government was articulated through Alliance’s staunchly pro-remain stance.

The post-Brexit mood was described as a blip but Alliance continued to grow in the wake of the Assembly collapse in 2022.

It campaigned on........

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