On Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron presided over his last Bastille Day parade; his term in office ends next year. It was the biggest display of French military might this century with over 6,000 troops, 100 aircraft and hundreds of armoured vehicles.

Macron wanted to emphasise French leadership in European defence and what he called in his speech “strategic autonomy”, setting the standard for a more European-led NATO. Representatives from most EU countries attended, as did 500 troops from EU states and Britain.

It might be a different story next year. France’s 2027 presidential election is potentially very consequential not only for France but for the EU as a whole. The frontrunner is Marine Le Pen, whose conviction for embezzlement of political funds was upheld last week by a French appeal court but cleared her to fight the election.

Le Pen, leader of Rassemblement National (RN) – in English, National Rally – is an EU sceptic, at one stage toying with the notion of ‘Frexit’: France leaving the EU. She opposes EU military cooperation, including joint military plans with Germany, and advocates leaving NATO’s integrated command structure.

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RN, from 1972-2018 called the National Front, is the largest party in France’s National........

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