The Democratic Party has lost millions of voters since 2020, according to new analysis from the New York Times. Meanwhile, Republicans are gaining ground, even in traditional blue states, as more voters register with the GOP.

“We’re missing layups on the basics right now,” says longtime Democratic strategist Nina Smith, alarmed by the news. “We’re losing on voter registration in 30 states — the only 30 states that track voter registration between parties. We’re losing in every single one.”

This week on The Intercept Briefing, Smith, a former senior adviser to Stacey Abrams with more than two decades in Democratic politics, joined host Jessica Washington to explain why the party keeps failing at the fundamentals — like voter registration, building the base, and party infrastructure — while Donald Trump consolidates power despite record-high disapproval ratings.

“Voter registration is like the layup of Democratic basketball politics,” says Smith. “How do we expect to win elections if we’re not registering voters who are committed to us on our issues?”

Listen to the full conversation of The Intercept Briefing on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

Transcript

Jessica Washington: Welcome to The Intercept Briefing, I’m Jessica Washington.

The Democratic Party has shed millions of voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections, according to new analysis from the New York Times. At the same time, Republicans have gained ground, even in traditional blue states, as an increasing number have registered with the GOP.

President Donald Trump’s disapproval ratings are at record highs. Yet, many Democrats still describe their own party as “weak” or “ineffective.” And as Trump works to consolidate power, Democrats remain divided on how to respond.

In recent weeks, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has emerged as one of the few Democrats openly confronting Trump head-on.

Gavin Newsom: We’re here because Donald Trump on January 6 tried to light democracy on fire. … And here he is once again trying to rig the system. He doesn’t play by a different set of rules. He doesn’t believe in the rules.

JW: Trump, meanwhile, continues to openly embrace gerrymandering as a strategy to maintain Republican dominance.

Donald Trump: California is gerrymandered. We should have many more seats in Congress in California — it’s all gerrymandered. And we have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats. We have a really good governor, and we have good people in Texas. And I won Texas. I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats.

JW: For the record, California relies on an independent redistricting commission. But in response to Trump, Newsom is signaling that Democrats can no longer follow the old playbook.

GN: We have got to recognize the cards that have been dealt. And we have got to meet fire with fire.

JW: Newsom is countering Trump’s push to gerrymander, aka redraw districts, to give Republicans in Texas five more seats in Congress, with his own aggressive redistricting plan for California. Texas Democrats, for their part, have also tried to block GOP efforts to manipulate congressional maps for Trump’s benefit. But beyond Newsom — and, briefly, Democrats in Texas — few in the party seem willing to match Trump’s intensity. So where is the rest of the Democratic Party?

To understand what’s still holding the party back, I wanted to speak to Nina Smith, longtime Democratic strategist and former senior advisor to Stacey Abrams. Smith is a communications strategist with over 20 years of experience in policy, communications, crisis, and brand strategy.

Welcome to the Intercept Briefing, Nina.

Nina Smith: Thanks for having me. It’s interesting we’re talking about this right now. I just got to say this, like even talking about the Democratic Party and fighting back, like we’re missing layups on the basics right now. We’re losing on voter registration in 30 states — the only 30 states that track voter registration between parties. We’re losing in every single one. Voter registration is like the layup of Democratic basketball politics, right? If you’re thinking about it, how are you missing these layups — like 30 states, not a single one are we leading in voter registration?

And so how do we expect to win elections if we’re not registering voters who are committed to us on our issues? It just doesn’t make any sense to me. So I’m flabbergasted, I’m upset. I just wanted to rant about that really quick. And share that even as we’re talking about the state of the Democratic Party this is exactly the problem.

JW: No, we’re getting right into it. I appreciate that.

NS: You know, I came ready.

JW: So let’s get into it. I mean, how would you describe the Democratic Party strategy when it comes to confronting Trump? Is it more reaction than strategy?

NS: What you’re seeing right now is something that naturally happens and occurs after presidential cycles. The party that lost usually takes a little bit of time to review lessons learned from the loss — assess where they are from a money standpoint and see what they need to do to prepare for the next cycle. I think what you’re seeing here is that the other side is just much better prepared and it’s kind of been something that has been building for the party, I think for a very long time.

There’s been a loss of focus, I think maybe since about the 2006 cycle where the DNC last had a very strategic direction around building infrastructure, around voter registration, and around demonstrating in policy and in messaging who they are. That’s not the Democratic Party we have today.

I think there’s a lot of different folks pulling at the vision of the party. I think there’s a lack of commitment around where we do end up moving into. And I think, at the center of it all, we have a party infrastructure that is just weak and unfortunately aging in some regards and lacking in energy, for lack of a better word.

JW: When you say the 2006 cycle, I mean that’s a really long time ago. What do you attribute to the fact that it’s been that long in your estimation since the party has had a real strategy and a real organized on the ground strategy?

NS: I think part of it is [that] primaries can be very brutal. I think there was a 2008 primary that really put the DNC in a position where there were other organizations outside of it that could spin off.

I think there were also different reforms that pushed a lot of the organizing to outside groups and weakened the party itself. And I think the party failed to adjust to what we are seeing coming out of the Supreme Court, when it comes to engaging in elections and some of the norms we have under the Voting Rights Act.

And so there’s so many different elements that shifted after 2006 and going into 2008 and even 2010 that I think the party just failed to adapt to those changes. And because of it, again, we find ourselves in a position where we don’t have committed donors, where we are losing on voter registration nationally. And again, our brand, people just don’t buy into us anymore. We used to be the cool kids on the block, and we’ve lost that. And again, a lot of it is party infrastructure; a lot of it is just losing the plot.

JW: Yeah. On that note, I remember one of the last conversations we had, you mentioned that Democrats need to earn back voters’ trust that voters don’t trust them. And I’m curious, I mean, do you think what we’ve seen from Gavin Newsom, from Texas Democrats where they’re kind of pushing back, do you think that’s the way to regain that trust? Or do you think that’s a slippery slope?

NS: I mean, I think it’s one way to demonstrate how we’re fighting back, but we also have to take the opportunity to communicate a vision.

Unless we’re doing both of those things, we just look like the opposition party, which I mean, of course we are, and we need to be fighting back and pushing back against an autocratic takeover. That’s exactly what we’re seeing right now. But I also think that the party needs to know and understand what we’re for.

The party needs to know and understand how we’ve been effective. We need to be communicating that out to the public and really engaging them on a very grassroots level. I’m talking what’s the state of the college Democrats, right? How are we investing in the young Democrats? A lot of these organizations for us used to be the farms to really find talent and groom talent and bring them into the party. And we’ve lost those things.

Even if you think about a local central committee for a Democratic Party, those are the local representatives at your county level who represent you and represent the Democratic Party on the county level. And if you don’t have people who are engaged and active on that level, the energy is going to be something that slips election to election. And we need........

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