When President Donald Trump stood alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House this week to unveil their latest ceasefire plan for Gaza, Trump spoke in definite terms. He called the occasion “a historic day for peace” and said the deal would bring an end to fighting in the region for the “first time in thousands of years.”

In contrast, the 20-point plan — written by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, both real estate investors — is both vague and full of contradictions, largely excluding Palestinian involvement while allowing Israel and the U.S. to maintain broad political, military, and economic powers within Gaza, according to observers and experts on the region.

Similar to previous ceasefire proposals throughout Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, the recent plan calls for the immediate cessation of fighting, an exchange of Israeli and Palestinian prisoners, the disarmament of Hamas, and the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza.

Where this plan differs is that U.S. officials are attempting to spell out what a post-war Gaza would look like.

The plan states that “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza” and that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza.” Palestinians would have the ability to leave or return, a reversal from Trump’s previous calls to expel all Palestinians from the territory. Yet experts cautioned that these assurances do not indicate a reversal of policy for the Israeli government, which has been consistent in its goals toward the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and total control over the territory.

“Palestinians might be able to stay in Gaza, but they will not be able to really govern its affairs.”

Trump’s plan allows for Israel to have veto power during the military withdrawal phases, with terms largely set by the U.S. and Israel. Internal security of Gaza would then be managed by a so-called International Stabilization Force, led by the U.S. and other Arab states. Even after withdrawal from Gaza, the plan calls for “a security perimeter” around Gaza maintained by the Israeli military until the territory is “secure from any resurgent terror threat.”

Allowing Israel to maintain such a security perimeter around Gaza all but guarantees Israel the opportunity to indefinitely occupy the territory in a similar manner to the decadeslong blockade that rendered Gaza an open-air prison preceding Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks. In 2005, Israel withdrew its military from and dismantled its settlements within Gaza, but the Israeli military remained in control of its borders. Experts said the new proposal promises a similar chokehold on the territory, along with the possible resumption of Israel’s military campaign.

“This is a continuation of the occupation, if not a continuation of the war by other means,” said Amjad Iraqi, a senior analyst on Israel/Palestine with the International Crisis Group. “Palestinians might be able to stay in Gaza, but they will not be able to really govern its affairs.”

At Monday’s conference, Netanyahu thanked Trump, “the greatest friend that Israel ever had in the White House,” for the plan, which he said allows his government the chance to “achieve all of our war objectives without any further bloodshed.”

But the Israeli leader reserved the right to “finish the job … the hard way” and resume its military campaign in Gaza if Hamas were to reject the deal or fail to meet its conditions. Immediately after the conference, in which the leaders declined to take questions from the press, Netanyahu posted a video in Hebrew meant to address his coalition, promising that he does not intend to withdraw Israeli troops from Gaza.

As Hamas weighs how to respond to the plan, Trump on Tuesday threatened the Palestinian militant political group with “a very sad end” if it declines the deal. Trump said he would give Hamas “three to four days” to decide.

The plan already has buy-in from a number of Western nations, including the United Kingdom, France, and Australia, which all were new to recognize Palestinian statehood last week. Other nations that welcome the plan include Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, China, and Russia. Also supporting the plan are a host of Arab and Muslim-majority nations, such as Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, and Indonesia, which had received a draft of the plan one week earlier from the Trump administration at the United Nations headquarters. The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority also said it welcomed Trump’s plan.

Indefinite Occupation of Gaza

Experts worry that Israel’s veto power in the new Gaza plan gives it freedom to resume its military campaign at any moment.

Netanyahu’s government has hardly been a trustworthy partner in peace agreements........

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