It would be easy to believe America is tipping into an era of rampant political bloodshed.

In the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination, voices from across the spectrum sounded alarms that the shooting was just the latest flashpoint in a rising tide of violence.

Progressive commentator Hasan Piker, shaken after watching video of Kirk’s murder, warned his audience of “people looking for decentralized forms of violence.” A Reuters analysis was even more blunt, declaring Kirk’s killing “a watershed moment in a surge of U.S. political violence.” Even Utah’s Republican governor mused whether this marked “the beginning of a darker chapter in our history.”

These aren’t the first calls for open strife. When Donald Trump himself was shot last year, some right-wing figures rushed to declare it the opening salvo of a new civil war.

Are we on the brink of another 1960s-style season of political assassinations and unrest?

A funny thing is happening beneath the apocalyptic headlines: Rather than surging, key indicators of political violence and extremism in the U.S. have actually been trending downward in recent months. New findings from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED, show that protest and extremist activity has dropped significantly nationwide.

In August, the number of public demonstrations in the U.S. plummeted by nearly 40 percent compared to the month before. A much-hyped progressive day of action called “Rage Against the Regime” fizzled with only modest turnouts, contributing to the sharp decline in protests.

And, perhaps most tellingly, organized extremist incidents — rallies, hate marches, militant group meet-ups — fell off a cliff. ACLED reports that extremist group activity dropped by over one-third in August, hitting its lowest level in more than five years. It’s part of a steady decline in far-right mobilization that dates back to 2023.

In other words, according to ACLED, by the time commentators were warning that Kirk’s murder heralded a new wave........

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