Latino voters set to play key role in Texas Senate battle

Ken Paxton’s victory in Texas is putting the spotlight on Hispanic voters, who could play a key role in November as Democrats set out to flip the state’s Senate seat.

Democrats increasingly see Texas as a key pickup opportunity of the 2026 cycle after the state’s scandal-plagued attorney general defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in Tuesday’s bruising primary following a last-minute endorsement from President Trump.

But the outcome of Paxton’s November matchup with Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico could hinge on Hispanic voters, who moved sharply toward Republicans during Trump’s 2024 campaign but have recently shown signs of drifting back toward Democrats in the polls.

“The Latino vote is the biggest swing vote in Texas, so whoever wins them in big numbers is going to be victorious,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor, told The Hill in an interview.

Recent national surveys have found Democrats regaining support among nonwhite and Hispanic voters, after Trump made significant gains with those voting blocs last cycle. A Pew Research Center survey released this month found Trump’s approval rating among Latinos who voted for him in 2024 down 27 points since the start of his second term — falling to 66 percent in April. 

The same survey found Trump’s overall approval among Latinos down 14 points — at 22 percent — fueling Democratic hopes they can regain ground with the critical voting bloc in the Lone Star State.

Latino voters have long favored Democrats over Republicans, but voting patterns in presidential elections over the past decade have tracked a clear shift to the right. Nationally, Trump’s support among Latino voters rose from 28 percent in 2016 to 32 percent........

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