Not too long ago, many pundits and politicians thought the Baltic Sea could become what some have colloquially dubbed “NATO Lake.”

The concept: a body of water practically dominated by Western shipping, with enforcement belonging almost exclusively to NATO states and a minimal-at-best Russian presence.

The war in Ukraine actually gave momentum to the idea after Sweden and Finland joined the Western alliance, putting almost all of the Baltic Sea’s regional coastline under NATO control.

At least in theory.

“I absolutely hate the term ‘NATO Lake,’” Commodore Ivo Värk, commander of the Estonian navy, said with an incredulous grin.

Speaking to NewsNation aboard the ENS Ugandi, a Sandown-class minehunter, he made clear he believes Sweden and Finland have been advantageous additions to NATO.

But that doesn’t change the fact that the nearby Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is home to Russia’s Baltic Fleet and Russia’s second largest city of Saint Petersburg has direct passageway to the Atlantic through the waterway.

Russia is not downsizing its presence in the Baltic region. In fact, NATO and Russia cross paths every day in what is one of the most strategic bodies of water in the world.

“It’s never going to be easy. It’s always going to be a contested environment where you have to fight your way in and out,” Värk explained, referring to the density of naval and commercial traffic.

“And how contested is it?” I asked earnestly.

“Very.”

The Russian navy routinely carries out drills in the Baltic, flexing its muscles in full view of a collection of Western states. Those come and go, and seldom generating alarm. “Business as usual,” as Värk described.

What is putting the alliance on edge, however, is the recent string of incursions into Baltic airspace.

On Friday, three Russian MiG-31 jets spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace, according to that nation’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. NATO leaders have called for a unified and tough response.

Estonia’s

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