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Despite trade deals, the fallout from tariffs is just beginning

4 2
31.07.2025

With the Aug. 1 trade deadline at hand, deals with Japan and the European Union have been announced that give investors greater clarity on what President Trump is seeking from key trading partners.

Trump agreed to lower Japan’s reciprocal tariff rate to 15 percent from 25 percent last week in return for a commitment by Japan to invest $550 billion into the U.S. and to open its market to U.S. goods.

The European Union also agreed to 15 percent tariffs on most of its exports to the U.S., which was down from Trump’s prior threat of 30 percent. In return, the EU reportedly also agreed to purchase $750 billion in energy and to invest $600 billion in the U.S. on top of existing investments.

While the framework for the two deals was similar, the reaction in Japan was more favorable than in Europe. The deal Japan struck was attractive because it meant Japanese carmakers would be subject to 15 percent tariffs instead of the 25 percent tariffs levied on cars and auto parts.

Politico reports that the agreement is giving domestic automakers “heartburn,” because U.S. car manufactures have taken hits from duties on components they import from Mexico and Canada.

In comparison, EU leaders were less enthusiastic about the deal they struck, and European stocks and the euro sold off on the news.

As the editorial board of the Financial Times put it, “The world’s largest trading bloc may have dodged higher tariffs, but it has also rubber stamped the U.S. president’s new world order.”

For the time being at least, investors appear comforted that the worst of the trade war is over, as trading partners have refrained from retaliating against U.S. actions. In this respect, it is........

© The Hill