The Vance versus Rubio 2028 nomination fight through the lens of chaos 

Given President Trump’s confrontational nature and disdain for his constitutional duty to transfer power, he will be the most vocal, intrusive lame-duck president in history when the White House race kicks into high gear following the November midterms. Observers can score the contest to form the first post-Trump presidential nomination through that lens.

When the 2028 Republican National Convention takes place, 16 years will have passed since the party nominated someone other than Trump. In this new era, the measure for Republican candidates is whether they support or oppose Trump. Therefore, the president’s name and associated chaos engulf the virtual scorecards.

In every presidential election, unpredictable and surprising events tend to influence the outcome, as most recently seen when then-81-year-old President Joe Biden withdrew from his reelection bid in July 2024. Interestingly, Trump turns 82 in June 2028.

The natural frontrunner, Vice President JD Vance, leads the RealClearPolitics polling average with 45 percent among Republican primary voters. Since he will enjoy the advantages of incumbency, primary challengers could face negative consequences and bad blood.

Compare that to May 2023, when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis entered the Republican primary race with 25 percent support against Trump’s 56 percent. To project untouchable strength by early 2027, Vance would do well to boost his primary base support by at least 10 points. But there are still troubling signs within Trump’s base.

For example, last weekend at CPAC, Vance won the non-scientific presidential straw poll with 53 percent support — only 8 points higher than his polling average. But considering the........

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