President Trump issued a stern ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatening to impose significant taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a peace agreement is not reached promptly in Ukraine. Trump emphasized that Russia's economy is under strain and urged Putin to negotiate, stating that failure to do so would compel the U.S. to enact severe economic penalties.

“I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR," Trump posted to Truth Social, liberally using capital letters. "Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States.”

The Kremlin quickly downplayed these threats as nothing new, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov noting that Trump employed similar tactics during his first term. Despite facing even harsher sanctions since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia's economy has demonstrated surprising resilience. Former President Joe Biden’s boast that international sanctions had reduced the ruble to “rubble” turned out to be bluster. Russia simply fled into the arms of China and appears perfectly capable of sustaining its own war machine for the foreseeable future.

In this case, Trump is brandishing the wrong big stick. At the very least, more than tariffs and sanctions will be needed. An effective policy must bring to bear all relevant elements of national power.

During his campaign, Trump bragged that he could end the war in 24 hours. Unfortunately, it........

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