Rather than nudge smokers toward healthier behaviors, a new rule from the FDA would shove millions of Americans away from the legal market, fueling the development of a black market for traditional cigarettes.

This would threaten the effectiveness of the very regulatory system that health experts and policymakers have relied on to reduce tobacco use, potentially crippling future efforts to reduce the harms associated with smoking.

U.S. smoking rates have reached all-time lows under the current regulatory system. In a 2024 poll, only 11 percent of Americans reported having smoked a cigarette in the last week, down from 20 percent a decade ago and from 40 percent 50 years ago. Cigarette use has declined even more rapidly among young adults, with just 6 percent having smoked one within the last week, compared to over 30 percent 20 years ago.

Despite this progress, smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the U.S., and further efforts to reduce smoking have the potential to save hundreds of........

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