In today's issue:

▪ Powell resists Trump rate pressure

▪ Stock trading ban advances in Senate

▪ Redistricting takes center stage ahead of 2026

▪ Witkoff heads to Israel for Gaza aid, peace talks

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President Trump remained bullish about the country’s economic prospects on Wednesday, even as the Federal Reserve declined to cut interest rates and his tariff deadline looms.

While the country's economic outlook will come into clearer focus with today's inflation numbers and tomorrow's jobs report, experts agree Trump's tariffs are skewing the picture and adding uncertainty, even if markets are mostly starting to shrug.

FED IMPACT: Trump on Wednesday touted the new gross domestic product (GDP) numbers on Truth Social, calling the 3 percent growth “WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED!”

The president again urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who he criticized with the nickname "Too Late," to lower interest rates. Powell has pointed to uncertainty surrounding tariffs for why the Fed is keeping rates steady.

“No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!” Trump wrote.

Powell did not buckle under Trump’s pressure campaign, instead keeping short-term interest rates at a level of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent. But, in a lack of consensus not seen in 30 years, two of the central bank’s governors dissented from the decision. Both are in the running for the job of Fed chair, which will open up at the end of Powell’s term next May.

Powell downplayed the significance of the dissents during a Wednesday press conference, praising Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman and board member Christopher Waller, both Trump appointees, for laying out clear cases for their decisions.

“This was quite a good meeting all around the table,” Powell said. “People thought carefully about this and put their positions out there. The majority of the committee was of the view that inflation is a bit above target. Maximum employment is at target. That calls for modestly restrictive [interest rates] in my way of thinking.”

▪The New York Times: A history of dissents in the Federal Reserve.

▪The Hill: This is how Trump’s tariffs could affect your grocery bill.

LOOKING UP: Tariffs and uncertainty upended business plans and changed consumers’ spending decisions early this year, leading economic growth to soften. But adjusted for inflation, GDP increased at a 3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said, topping forecasters’ expectations.

Economists warn the latest figures may be painting a more upbeat picture of the economy than warranted.

“It’s hard to know exactly what’s happening because the whole trade war is leaving a real imprint on macroeconomic data,” Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price, told The New York Times. “But the picture isn’t as rosy as a 2 or 3 percent growth rate would indicate.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday upgraded the economic outlook for the U.S. and the world this year and next because Trump’s trade policies so far have proven less damaging than expected. The IMF forecasts 3 percent growth for the global economy this year, down from 3.3 percent in 2024 but an improvement on the 2.8 percent it had forecast for 2025 back in April.

Companies “frontloading” imports before Trump’s tariffs went into effect, along with the slight tumble of the U.S. dollar, have assisted in the growth of the world economy, IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the Financial Times.

BRACING FOR TARIFFS: Trump’s global “reciprocal” tariffs are set to take effect Friday, leaving countries scrambling to wrap up trade deals with the U.S. ahead of the deadline. Trump said Wednesday that he would not extend his self-imposed Aug. 1 deadline and announced a 25 percent tariff on imports from India, seemingly dashing hopes for an agreement with one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners in the next few days.

Meanwhile, the president announced a trade deal with South Korea, matching the structure of deals with the European Union and U.K. In a Truth Social post, Trump said South Korean imports would face a 15 percent tariff, while U.S. exports to the country would not be tariffed. The U.S. also reached trade agreements with Thailand and Cambodia, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

“The August first deadline is the August first deadline — It stands strong, and will not be extended,” Trump posted. “A big day for America!!!”

▪ The Hill: Consumer products giant Procter & Gamble said it would raise prices on many products in part due to higher costs from Trump's tariffs.

▪The Wall Street Journal: Ford Motor paid out more than $800 million in tariffs last quarter, despite manufacturing most of its vehicles in the U.S.

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© The Hill