Trump better watch out for Lisa Murkowski

President Trump is claiming victory over another Republican primary, dispatching incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). He managed this after easily pushing out Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) earlier this month. No president has ever had such success intervening in his party’s primaries. Of course, past presidents have rarely attempted to do so.  

But primaries are not general elections, and winning in November is what really counts. Trump could be setting himself up for trouble, and it could well come from a senator not even on the ballot. 

Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. While most of the seats up for grabs are not competitive, Republicans hold most of those that are at risk. According to ratings from The Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics, the open North Carolina seat looks likely to flip to the Democrats. Also, despite his buffoonery, Democrat Graham Platner has never trailed Sen. Susan Collins in Maine in any poll. Although Cook and RealClearPolitics have Maine as a toss-up, that rating seems rather generous.

With Republicans down to 51 seats assuming Democratic wins in those races, the fight for control will center on Ohio, Texas and Michigan. Both Cook and RealClear rate Ohio and Michigan as “toss-ups.” Cook has Texas as “lean Republican,” whereas RealClear, which is more cautious overall in its ratings, has the Lone Star State as a toss-up. 

In the Ohio seat vacated by JD Vance, Democrats are running it again with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost re-election in 2024 after three terms but still ran ahead of Kamala Harris. Sen. Jon Husted (R), appointed to the vacancy, has won statewide by large margins as secretary of State. In the few polls conducted thus far, Husted has maintained a narrow lead. (The seat should probably be “lean Republican.”)

But in Texas,........

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