Polling is giving observers a clearer picture of what to expect on Election Day as voters cast their ballots.

Key elections in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and California could hold big implications for what to expect in next year’s midterms.

Here’s what the polling tells us about Tuesday’s major races:

Virginia

Throughout Virginia’s gubernatorial campaign, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) has maintained a solid lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R). The latest Emerson College/The Hill survey, released Saturday, showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 55 percent to 44 percent. Spanberger improved her standing by 3 points in the poll, while Earle-Sears improved her standing by 2 points.

The polling average from The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ has Spanberger up nearly 10 points over Earle-Sears.

However, the most closely watched race in the state this cycle is the attorney general contest. The race was always seen as one of the closer statewide races in Virginia, given Attorney General Jason Miyares’s status as an incumbent and fundraising advantage. Democratic nominee Jay Jones, however, still held a narrow lead over Miyares.

That all changed in early October when texts sent by Jones in 2022 surfaced in which he talked about inflicting violence on former state House........

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