Virginia emerges as key bellwether ahead of midterms
Virginia’s off-year elections are being viewed by both parties as a key bellwether heading into next year’s midterms, as well as a potential indicator for how voters view President Trump.
Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) will face off to become the first female governor of the state, while Democrats will seek to maintain and grow their majority in the House of Delegates.
The races could prove to be a litmus test for the first year of Trump’s second administration as Republicans prepare to defend their majorities in Congress next year, especially as Virginia has a tendency to oscillate between the two parties in the race for governor.
“The Democrats want to look at this as a bellwether largely because they think they have an advantage here,” said veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rate the gubernatorial contest as “lean Democratic.”
A Roanoke College survey released in May showed Spanberger with a wide 43 percent to 26 percent lead over Earle-Sears, with 28 percent of voters saying they were undecided. However, another May poll released by the business group Virginia FREE showed Spanberger leading by 4 percentage points.
Spanberger also holds a fundraising lead over Earle-Sears. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Spanberger raised $6.5 million while Sears brought in $3.5 million. Spanberger currently has more than $14 million in the bank, while Sears has just less than $3 million.
Spanberger, a former intelligence officer, has a history as a formidable candidate, having unseated former Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) in the state’s highly........
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