Trump’s exit strategy on Iran swirling with uncertainty

President Trump’s exit strategy on Iran is swirling with uncertainty as he and his administration offer varying accounts of the war’s timeline and what the ultimate objective is.

Trump told reporters Monday the U.S. is “getting very close to finishing” its operations in Iran, suggesting a potential off-ramp was in sight. But then Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a Tuesday news conference the conflict is “quite contained” while the U.S. continues to draw down its embassy staff in the region, while promising a bombing campaign bigger than ever is still to come.

When asked in an interview with CNBC how he sees the war ending, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said, “I don’t know.”

“President Trump is the wrong guy to go up against, that’s what I know,” Witkoff said. “He has drawn a red line, and that is that Iran cannot have a weapon. And yes, they say they don’t want one, but all of their actions indicate the exact opposite.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a Tuesday briefing the war will end when Trump deems that Iran no longer poses a credible threat to the U.S., its allies, and troops in the region — offering no real timetable for a conclusion.

“Ultimately, the operations will end when the commander in chief determines the military objectives have been met, fully realized, and that Iran is in a position of complete and unconditional surrender whether they say it or not,” she told reporters.

What unconditional surrender means remains vague as polls paint a bleak picture of Americans’ approval of the operation.

An NBC News survey, which began collecting responses a day before the U.S. launched the joint strikes with Israel, found that 54 percent of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the situation.

According to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Friday, 56 percent of Americans said they strongly opposed military action in the region, while 44 percent said they supported or strongly supported the campaign.

Foreign leaders are also questioning Trump’s ultimate endgame in Iran.

“We are concerned that there is clearly no joint plan for bringing this war to an end,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters Tuesday. “We have no interest in an endless war.”

The chancellor’s remarks are particularly notable given his statements in support of regime change at the hands of the U.S. and Israel last week when he met with Trump at the White House.

Merz initially criticized the strikes, joining the leaders of France and the United Kingdom in a joint letter in the hours after the first attack that called for a return to the negotiating table.

Trump and administration officials have signaled he does not want a prolonged military entanglement in Iran, initially saying the operation would likely last four to five weeks. But that timetable has also shifted, depending on who in the administration is providing one at this point.

“Very soon,” Trump said Monday, referencing when the war could end. “Look, everything they have is gone, including their leadership.”

But the Iranians also anointed their next supreme leader over the weekend, and several leaders continue to push back on U.S. sentiments reflecting defeat.

Hegseth, for his part, sought to throw cold water on concerns that the U.S. war in Iran mirrored the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

“This is not 2003. This is not endless nation-building under those types of the quagmires under [former Presidents] Bush or Obama. It’s not even close. Our generation of soldiers will not let that happen again and nor will this president,” Hegseth told reporters at the Pentagon.

Marc Short, who served as White House legislative director and chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence during the first Trump administration, said the U.S. endgame in Iran could differ from Israel’s endgame in the war.

“The endgame is to neutralize Iran’s ability to engage in offensive attacks across the Middle East and elsewhere,” Short said. “I’m not sure if that goal is the same, consistent with what Israel’s goal is.”

“I can see that for sure. I think that the president is weary about getting entangled in something longer,” he said when asked if differing end goals from the two countries could present a challenge.

Polling shows Americans also remain concerned about the war. A Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday found that 71 percent of respondents said they believed the conflict could last for “months,” “about a year” or “longer than that” into the future.

The likely impact of rising oil prices on the economy and voters ahead of the midterms also could alter the administration’s timeline.

“I think he’s also going to be influenced by the cost of energy,” Short said, noting Trump understands affordability will be a top issue going into the midterms.

“If you’re taking energy prices that he had driven down to $60 a barrel and now it’s at $90, yeah that’s not as bad as $120, but it’s still a 50 percent increase,” he said.  

A Reuters/Ipsos survey released Monday found 67 percent of respondents said they anticipate gas prices to rise over the next year, while only 11 percent said they would improve and 12 percent said they would stay the same.

Trump’s rhetoric on the timeline of the war has had an impact on oil prices. On Monday morning, oil prices spiked 32 percent to $119 per barrel, but they dropped to $86 per barrel after Trump said the war was “very complete, pretty much” in an interview with CBS News.

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