The battle for the House majority in next year's midterms is growing increasingly competitive as redistricting reshapes the country's political landscape.

Democrats, buoyed by a string of off-year special election victories and historic trends, are optimistic about flipping the lower chamber. They point to generic ballot polling that shows them leading the GOP, as well as President Trump’s sinking approval numbers, as reasons for their optimism.

But the recent GOP push to redraw congressional lines in multiple red states threatens to effectively cancel out these advantages, especially as Democrats face fewer options to counter their opponents with their own redistricting.

As a result, the race for the House is currently shaping up as a coin flip, some experts say.

“At this stage in the game, the House looks like it’s going to be more competitive than we had thought and redistricting is a main driver of that,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ.

“A lot of that stuff looks like it is going in the Republicans’ favor,” he added.

On Thursday, the National Republican Congressional Committee added three Texas districts
— the 9th, 32nd and 35th — to their target list following Lone Star State Republicans approving a new congressional map over the summer. In a statement announcing the addition, the committee’s chair, Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), noted House Republicans were “on offense.”

Republicans are also seeking to get a boost in Missouri, where the state Legislature passed a GOP-friendly map last week. That map would effectively nix Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Mo.) district. Republicans will try to gain two seats in Ohio’s redistricting process, which is legally required to take place this year. And other red states like Florida, Indiana and Kansas are looking into redrawing their own maps.

But Republicans also say they already believed they were in decent standing heading into 2026, even before redistricting, pointing to 13 Democrats in districts Trump won last year compared with three Republicans in districts won by former Vice........

© The Hill