Iran war threatens to blunt GOP turnout in midterm battlegrounds

The escalating war with Iran is threatening to depress Republican turnout ahead of the midterms, as new polling shows President Trump’s MAGA base increasingly turned off by the conflict. 

The war has consistently polled poorly among Americans broadly, and a new survey suggests the war could be turning off Trump’s MAGA base specifically, which Republicans are counting on to turn out in the midterms. 

The Politico poll published Wednesday found just 37 percent of the president’s supporters backed the war if it led to increased prices, a figure down from 50 percent in May.

Prices are rising again amid the latest fighting between Iran and the U.S. Oil prices specifically spiked after the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said they would block a Red Sea outlet for oil ships.

The new fighting has damped hopes that the war could end after a memorandum of understanding between the two countries was signed last month.

The national average price of gas Thursday was more than $4 a gallon, according to AAA. And while U.S. consumer inflation slowed in June amid stabilizing oil prices, the new fighting may raise overall inflation again.

The new fighting also resulted in the deaths of four U.S. service members. Three were killed when an Iranian strike hit a U.S. base in Jordan, while another soldier was killed while disabling a drone in Iraq. More than 400 soldiers have been injured in the war, although the administration said that about 90 percent of them have returned to duty. 

Democrats have hit the administration in the wake of the latest developments.

“Now we’ve lost at least 18 U.S. service members because of your administration’s incompetence, and you should all be ashamed,” Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, admonished Trump officials at a hearing Wednesday.

“It’s very clear that Americans are not better off. Potentially the only people better off are the ayatollah and his cronies,” she added. 

Republicans acknowledge that the best-case scenario for the party would be for an end to the war, but they argue Trump has built up enough trust with MAGA voters that they will back Republicans, even if they disagree with the war itself. 

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