Democrats are making a play for Ohio in next year’s Senate race as former Sen. Sherrod Brown prepares an expected comeback attempt.

The Buckeye State was once firmly purple, but has become increasingly red in the Trump era. President Trump won the state in 2024 with 55 percent of the vote, and Brown lost his bid for reelection to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), winning 46.5 percent of the vote.

Those totals show Brown was much more popular with Ohio voters than former President Biden and former Vice President Harris, and Democrats think a lower-turnout midterm election could carry them to victory.

“When Trump is on the ballot, as Sherrod painfully found out, it's hard to win because his turnout is high, and he ends up spiking turnout in red parts of the state,” said David Pepper, a former state Democratic Party chair who led the party during Brown's last successful run in 2018.

But Pepper noted that Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, and he said a hidden trend has been conservative-leaning counties not being quite as solidly Republican in some elections more recently.

“If that continues to be a trend in ‘26, all of a sudden Ohio is a winnable state for good Democratic candidates,” he said.

Still, Republicans say the state is increasingly out of reach for any Democrat given the national party's image.

“This is a place where [President] Trump’s endorsement still matters a lot,” said Ohio Republican strategist Jordan Ohler. “Our side is as excited as they’ve ever been, maybe short of President Trump running himself.”

While Ohio has lost its status as the quintessential swing state representing the median of the country, it was key in the 2024 Senate elections, as Brown’s loss to Moreno, along with losses by Democratic incumbents in Montana and Pennsylvania, helped flip the chamber to Republican control. The state stands to be just as critical next year.

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